Updates to Blog

I know it has been a very long time since I have updated. I have been researching companies that fit into the mold of recession-proof. I would like to start picking companies that can make you all money in the short term as opposed to long term since this recession is elongating the entire money-making process. So from now on, I will be posting short term plays that will earn you money, even in these tough times.

Also, I will start to post my blog on http://www.stockcastr.com. I will have interactive audio/video blog posts that may be more informative than the standard text format.

Since I definitely owe you all for my long vacation from the blog, I will repay you with a great money-making pick with a holding time of a mere few weeks. You have all heard of this company before:

Ducommun: symbol DCO-If you need a background on this company, please see previous posts. Basically, DCO is constantly getting contracts even in this crap economy and yet the stock price has not fully reflected this. However, the share price will reflect DCOs successes on earnings day, which will come on July 28th. This company always reports good earnings and will likely report another excellent quarter on the 28th. Load up for some easy money.

Anyway, there will be much more to come. Stockcastr may not be visible to the public yet; however, I will keep you all updated on its status.

Some more stocks

This past week, I had the time to sit down and do a great deal of stock research. While performing my usual stock screens, I noticed that I had more results than usual. This is probably because there is so many undervalued securities in the market right now. I chose the following companies from the screen based primarily on current valuations, fundamentals, as well as sector.

In addition to AAR corp, I am bullish on another Aerospace and Defense play. Ducommun-symbol DCO,. Ducommun Incorporated, through its subsidiaries, designs, engineers, and manufactures aerostructure, electromechanical, and electronic components and subassemblies. It provides aluminum stretch-forming, titanium hot-forming, machining, composite lay-up, metal bonding, and chemical milling services. Ducommun offers its components, assemblies, and services principally for domestic and foreign commercial and military aircraft, helicopter, missile, and related programs, as well as space programs.

That company profile basically sums up what I like about this company. They are small enough to grow both as a company and in share price while also receiving plenty of contracts.

Aecom-ACM: For those of you loyal readers, you should be familiar with this company. After recommending this company in August, the stock went up to $33; at which point, I closed my position. Now the company has traced back to $24. AECOM Technology Corporation provides professional technical and management support services to government and commercial clients worldwide. The company's Professional Technical segment delivers planning, consulting, architectural and engineering design, and program and construction management services.

Aecom is in charge of the current World Trade Center Path Station. They are constantly receiving lucrative contracts.

Horsehead Holdings-ZINC: Again, I recommended this company around the same time as Aecom. They collect zinc dust and recycle it to form whole zinc, where they sell it on the market. They have low expenses and a very strong balance sheet. This is a good way to play the growing price of metals. As the price of zinc increases, so will this company's share price.

And last but not least, possibly my favorite if I had to choose...

Valero Energy- VLO: If you live in the United States, you have probably heard of this oil refiner. Valero Energy Corporation operates as a crude oil refining and marketing company in the United States and internationally. Its refining activities include refining operations, wholesale marketing, product supply and distribution, and transportation operations primarily in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, West Coast, and northeast regions.

Oil refiners like Valero are very cheap right now. So buying now before the busy summer driving season's increased gas prices may be the best way to make some fast money.

I know I did not provide you with in depth research on these companies. This is because it would take a very long time. If you do not believe my analysis, check out the company balance sheets, valuations, etc. These companies are, without a doubt, solid.

Jamba Insiders

It looks as if Jamba has finally hit its bottom. This is evidenced by the recent fund and insider buying.

Mutual Funds: http://thebuylist.com/default.aspx?Stock=jmba

Insiders: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=JMBA


So buy more here. This stock will return to the $6 level soon. Also, Jamba smoothies will be available in grocery stores nationwide by May.

AAR Corp

Hi again. It has been a while, but it is now time to start making money off this bottoming recession. The company is:

AAR Corporation

Symbol: AIR
Profile: AAR Corp., through its subsidiaries, provides products and services to the aviation, aerospace, and defense industries worldwide. It operates in four segments: Aviation Supply Chain; Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul; Structures and Systems; and Aircraft Sales and Leasing. Aviation Supply Chain segment sells various new, overhauled, and repaired engine and airframe parts and components to aviation and defense customers.

While I usually don't like to use other people's research, I can make an exception today since Chris Fernandez at peakstocks.com did such a great job in compiling an in-depth report on this company. His report really cleared up a bunch of concerns I had about this company.

Here is a link to his full research report on this company: http://peakstocks.com/research-reports/aar-corp-research-report

For those of you who don' t want to read the entire document, here are a few takeaways.

"If you use this industry, the average trailing P/E ratio is 29.84, which then puts AAR at a discount of about 23%." Since this report was written a month ago, AAR's trailing P/E has fallen to a mere 17.14.

"This gives a forward PEG ratio of: 21.71/17.5 = 1.24 (2008) and 16.74/17.5 = .96 (2009)." Again, these numbers are lower now since P/E has fallen.

"There are no direct competitors that do exactly what AAR does. Although there are companies that compete with AAR within each segment, there is no apples-to-apples comparison because no one is as diversified as AAR is within the aerospace and defense industry."

" US military and defense spending will continue and could possibly increase in the foreseeable future. In addition, the aerospace industry is growing like gangbusters with more and more people flying, and countries like China and India increasing demand for more planes and specifically, the types of services that AAR offers when those planes need to be repaired. There are 18,000 airplanes today, and that number is expected to double in the next 20 years!"

So, if you want a good bottoming recession play, this is it. If you look at recent headlines for this company, you will see that they are always getting contracts, whether military or not. They also just reported a great quarter, beating estimates by .01. Also, the fact that this company repairs planes and sells them is a great way to profit off start-up/smaller airlines. Smaller airlines are starting to compete with bigger airlines by buying their old planes at cheaper prices. This keeps their costs low and allows AAR to profit as the intermediary. Another point Chris made is that more repair work is being outsourced to AAR because they are able to repair planes at a lower cost than the airlines.

New Blog

Today is the first day of the new format. Just a reminder to those who forgot, I will not be posting weekly, but on a more irregular basis. However, the quality of my picks will be sure to earn you the returns you deserve. Instead of performing the YTD return calculations myself, I let stockpickr.com do the work instead, that way you all can track the performance of the blog picks on a daily basis just by clicking the link in the upper left corner fo this blog. Let me remind you all that because there is an irregular posting schedule, subscribe to the blog via RSS feed would be in your best interests. Under the old format, this blog had an average return of +0.4% versus the Dow Jones' -9.85% and S&P's -11.31%. While I outperformed the market, I still did not give you the returns I promised and I am sorry. However, I have much higher expectations for this blog under the new format.

Lucky for you, this miniature-recession has provided a great deal of value for investors.

Let me start off by recommending a stock that loyal readers of my blog are probably sick of hearing me go on about. I'm talking of course about Jamba Juice-JMBA. If you want to know my reasoning, look back to the archived posts of this blog related to Jamba Juice because I do not have the energy to list them all right now. At these levels, Jamba Juice is a steal. These are historically low levels brought on by people's not realizing that the negatives of Jamba Juice have already been priced in. Bryan Stabile of seeking alpha agrees with me. http://seekingalpha.com/article/63776-jamba-juice-the-worst-already-factored-in. Buying here would be a very smart move for investors who want to gain a lot without risking a lot. My prediction: you will at least double your money in a year's time.

My second pick fo the day is Sony-SNE. Sony is trading at 43.50, the lowest levels since late 2006. Aside from the fact that they are trading at 25% above book, .51 times sales, and have a very healthy balance sheet, I like Sony now because of their Blu-Ray video system, which has been competing with Toshiba's HDDVD as the future of digital media. Many people believe that Blu-Ray has already won the battle. http://gizmodo.com/archives/bluray-has-already-won-023974.php. According to reports as of January 27, 2008, Blu-Ray has 82% of high-definition optical disc sales. With numbers like these out, you would think everyone wants to buy Sony stock. Fortunately for us, Sony has been down since the January 27th announcement, leaving us with a buying opportunity. So buy here, for when Sony officially wins the Blu-Ray war, you will see your shares appreciate in value.

Happy New Year

Hello readers of this blog,

I would like to wish you all a happy 2008. It sure has been quite an ending to 2007. I know I have not updated in a very long time. However, I am glad to say that I will be changing the format of this blog by the end of this month. First, I will be offering picks that I myself would invest in. You must understand that value investors will often invest between 10-20 picks per year. So do not expect the picks to come on a weekly basis. Also, I am partnering with a startup financial information company that will broadcast my blog to a wider audience. Also, since I may have a sporadic posting schedule in 2008, I suggest that you subscribe to my blog via RSS so that you will receive my posts via email. To learn how to get started, click this link. Posts (Atom)

Week of 12/16 Analysis

With this current down market, it would make sense if your portfolio is down for the most part. I know mine has, but that is also because Jamba Juice is reverting back to the previous week low of 3. Like I said, I will continue to buy on weakness. Insider buying coupled with my generally positive sentiment of this company's future gives me such confidence. The Nestle deal, which will start going into effect in Q2 2008, is huge. This may fuel rapid expansion into areas outside of New York and California.

For those of you who are buying with me, good luck, not that you will need it.

More Jamba

As previously stated, I will continue buying Jamba at each price level. This is a strategy hedge funds use when trying to call a bottom. Luckily, I have some profits from half of my mastercard shares I sold off in the early summer.

I bought 200 at 4.06.